How rising emissions will hurt Canada's fisheries, and how curbing them could help

Written By Peter Allan

A lobster off the shores of Nova Scotia. Photo by Nick Hawkins

By  Cloe Logan

Canada’s most valuable commercial fish stocks — such as Iobsters, scallops and snow crabs — will be hit hardest if emissions don’t fall drastically, says a new study.

The study, published in Nature on Wednesday, maps the fate of over 2,000 marine species and 90 fish stocks across the North Atlantic Ocean. It shows that if emissions are not drastically reduced, Canada’s most commercially exploited stocks will suffer the most.

The study examines two scenarios over the next 75 years for marine life in the region. In one, emissions are kept in line with the Paris Agreement target of warming to 1.5 degrees C, while the other shows what will occur if emissions continue to rise.

The high-emissions scenario — called RCP8.5, or business as usual — looks at a future where countries do not make significant changes to cut planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall, the paper found that in both scenarios, species in the region are at high or critical risk across about a third of their native geographic distributions. However, if emissions are reduced, many harvested species won’t be as affected. American lobster, Atlantic sea scallop, snow crab, and northern shrimp were all highlighted as species whose habitats are the most affected by climate change because they are closer to shore, and therefore more vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures.

Fisheries such as lobster are important to Atlantic Canada’s economy. Last year, Canadian lobster exports hit $3.26 billion, a record surpassing the previous high of $2.50 billion in 2019.

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Peter Allan
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