2 days above 2 degrees

Nov 27

The Earth flicked briefly into the terrible twos this month. After crossing the symbolic threshold of 1.5 C through September, the global thermometer spiked above the totemic 2 C for two days in November.

There’s nothing magic about round numbers but that one’s a doozy. For more than a decade, world leaders have solemnly pledged to keep temperatures below 2 C — a number that’s been recognized since the 1970s as the outer limit of “dangerous” interference with the climate system. Many countries, notably those most vulnerable, argue 2 C is much too high, and so in Paris, the world agreed to keep the heat “well below 2 C” and to try to stay below 1.5 C.

We should be clear that a couple of days doesn’t mean the global goal is dead. That would require a global temperature averaged over decades. Conveniently for the solemn signatories, we would be long beyond their terms in office, and solidly into the terrible twos before an official determination.

Long before the refs can make an official call, we’d expect to flirt with two degrees, breach the “well below” target occasionally, and then, with ever more regularity.

As Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service puts it, the two-day spike “does not mean the Paris Agreement has been breached but highlights how we are approaching those internationally agreed limits. We can expect to see increasing frequency of 1.5-degree and 2-degree days over the coming months and years.”

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Peter Allan

2 days above 2 degrees

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